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Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 8?

By PolySays EditorialReporting published Editorial method

This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day…

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Current leader
100%Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 8?
Largest 24h move
+55.5 pp
24h volume
50
Liquidity
0

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 8?

100%

+55.5 pp 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here:.

Read the complete resolution rules

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.

If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 8? — probability rises to 100%

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.

Story so far

Published update

The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 10.0 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.

This summary reflects the reporting below. Market odds can change between published updates.

Latest published update

Published

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on October 8? — probability rises to 100%

The tracked probability rose to 100%, up 10.0 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. Why the probability rose is not established by the evidence attached to this update.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.

Unresolved questions

  • Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The figures show how the market's recorded probability changed over this window. They do not identify a catalyst or verify the eventual outcome.

    What changed

    Probability moved from 90% to 100% (+10 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 21 seconds apart: 2026-10-08 16:20:36 UTC to 2026-10-08 16:30:57 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

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