Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyWill the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 99.5%
The latest observation puts this outcome at 99.5%, compared with 51% at the start of the window.
Yes: 51% → 100%
+48.5 ppBy PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day…
Current leader
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2 outcomes
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13?
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on October 13?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe latest observation puts this outcome at 99.5%, compared with 51% at the start of the window.
Yes: 51% → 100%
+48.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe latest observation puts this outcome at 99.5%, compared with 51% at the start of the window.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.
The measured move
Yes: 51.0% → 99.5%
Probability moved from 51% to 99.5% (+48.5 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 1 second apart: 2026-10-13 16:02:14 UTC to 2026-10-13 16:14:15 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here:.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 99.5%
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