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Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

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This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day…

Current leader

100%

100%

Largest 24h move0.0 pp 24h
24h volume
$68.7
Liquidity
$0
Closed

Top candidates

2 outcomes

  • Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13?

    +65.5 pp 24h100%
  • Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or higher on October 13?

    0.0 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring only

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 99.5%

The latest observation puts this outcome at 99.5%, compared with 51% at the start of the window.

Yes: 51% → 100%

+48.5 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

The latest observation puts this outcome at 99.5%, compared with 51% at the start of the window.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.

    The measured move

    Yes: 51.0% → 99.5%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 51% to 99.5% (+48.5 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 1 second apart: 2026-10-13 16:02:14 UTC to 2026-10-13 16:14:15 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here:.

Read the complete resolution rules

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.

If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 99.5%

Keep exploring

Surge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 99.5%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Plunge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability falls to 53%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Plunge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability falls to 83%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Surge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 95%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Plunge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability falls to 82.5%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Surge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 95%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Plunge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability falls to 89%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Surge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 95%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Plunge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability falls to 85%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Surge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 90.5%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Surge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability rises to 86%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

Plunge

Will the lowest temperature in Taipei be 20°C on October 13? — probability falls to 79%

Lowest temperature in Taipei on October 13?

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