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SurgeMonitoring onlyWill the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on October 12? — probability rises to 95.5%
The latest observation puts this outcome at 95.5%, compared with 84.05% at the start of the window.
Yes: 84% → 96%
+11.4 ppBy PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Oct '26.
Current leader
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1 outcome
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on October 12?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe latest observation puts this outcome at 95.5%, compared with 84.05% at the start of the window.
Yes: 84% → 96%
+11.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe latest observation puts this outcome at 95.5%, compared with 84.05% at the start of the window.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.
The measured move
Yes: 84.0% → 95.5%
Probability moved from 84.05% to 95.5% (+11.45 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 40 seconds apart: 2026-10-12 13:50:16 UTC to 2026-10-12 14:00:56 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Oct '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on October 12? — probability rises to 95.5%
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