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Lowest temperature in Houston on October 7?

By PolySays EditorialReporting published Editorial method

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P.

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Current leader
96%Will the lowest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 7?
Largest 24h move
+62.0 pp
24h volume
0
Liquidity
117.2

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will the lowest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 7?

96%

+62.0 pp 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

Read the complete resolution rules

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F).

Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.

If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Living timeline · 2 significant updates

Will the lowest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 7? — probability rises to 96.45%

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.

Story so far

Published update

The tracked probability fell to 82.5%, down 14.0 percentage points from 96.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

This summary reflects the reporting below. Market odds can change between published updates.

Latest published update

Published

Will the lowest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on October 7? — probability rises to 96.45%

The tracked probability rose to 96.45%, up 14.0 percentage points from 82.5% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.

Unresolved questions

  • Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. This update compares two recorded prices. A price change does not, by itself, confirm a development in the underlying event.

    What changed

    Probability moved from 82.5% to 96.45% (+13.95 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 27 seconds apart: 2026-10-07 22:21:05 UTC to 2026-10-07 22:50:32 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

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