Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on October 9?
By PolySays EditorialReporting published Editorial method
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Oct '26.
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- Current leader
- 96%Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9?
- Largest 24h move
- +60.0 pp
- 24h volume
- 9.5K
- Liquidity
- 8.7K
Top candidates
2 outcomes
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9?
96%
+60.0 pp 24h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on October 9?
0%
-50.9 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 9 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg.
C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Read the complete resolution rules
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above.
The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9? — probability rises to 98.5%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.
Story so far
Published updateThe tracked probability rose to 98.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 95.5% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
This summary reflects the reporting below. Market odds can change between published updates.
Latest published update
Published
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on October 9? — probability rises to 98.5%
The tracked probability rose to 98.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 95.5% in the latest observation window. The reason for this increase has not been verified.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
This update compares two recorded prices. A price change does not, by itself, confirm a development in the underlying event.
What changed
Probability moved from 95.5% to 98.5% (+3 percentage points). Observations were 18 minutes 35 seconds apart: 2026-10-08 23:21:47 UTC to 2026-10-08 23:40:22 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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