By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Oct '26.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the lowest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 13?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe observed probability rose from 62.5% to 99.55%, an increase of 37.05 percentage points.
Yes: 63% → 100%
+37.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe observed probability rose from 62.5% to 99.55%, an increase of 37.05 percentage points.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
This update compares two recorded market observations. The price change describes trading in this contract; the available data does not establish its cause.
The measured move
Yes: 62.5% → 99.6%
Probability moved from 62.5% to 99.55% (+37.05 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes apart: 2026-10-14 08:40:57 UTC to 2026-10-14 08:50:58 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Oct '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F).
Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will the lowest temperature in Denver be between 48-49°F on October 13? — probability rises to 99.55%
Keep exploring
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.