Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyGame 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? — probability rises to 100%
The latest observation puts this outcome at 100%, compared with 90.5% at the start of the window.
Yes: 91% → 100%
+9.5 ppBy PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market refers to the LoL Semifinal 2 match between Galions and Movistar KOI Fénix in the EMEA Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe latest observation puts this outcome at 100%, compared with 90.5% at the start of the window.
Yes: 91% → 100%
+9.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 90.5%, down 9.0 percentage points from 99.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.
The measured move
Yes: 90.5% → 100.0%
Probability moved from 90.5% to 100% (+9.5 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 22 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 19:30:43 UTC to 2026-10-13 20:00:05 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the LoL Semifinal 2 match between Galions and Movistar KOI Fénix in the EMEA Masters Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Galions" if Galions win the match against Movistar KOI Fénix. This market will resolve to "Movistar KOI Fénix" if Movistar KOI Fénix win the match against Galions.
If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 14, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET).
If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.
If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from.
However, if has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching.
Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition.
If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Game 2: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? — probability rises to 100%
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