Lecornu out as French PM by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Current leader
- December 31, 2026 32%
- Largest 24h move
- July 31, 2026 -1%
- 24h volume
- 11.9
- Liquidity
- 26.2K
Top candidates
3 outcomes
December 31, 2026
32%
0% 24h
July 31, 2026
1%
-1% 24h
June 30, 2026
0%
0% 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government.
An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Odds chart showing latest December 31, 2026 probability of 21%.
Story so far
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Source trail
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Living timeline