This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election.
Current leader
83%
83%
2 outcomes
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 16%, down 9.5 percentage points from 25.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 26% → 16%
-9.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 83%, up 6.0 percentage points from 77% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 25.5% to 16% (-9.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:32:43.637Z to 2026-11-04T03:03:37.976Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 25.5% → 16%
Probability moved from 25.5% to 16% (-9.5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 54 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 02:32:43 UTC to 2026-11-04 03:03:37 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 77% to 83% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:23:09.154Z to 2026-11-04T03:03:27.524Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 15% to 25.5% (+10.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T02:02:34.098Z to 2026-11-04T02:32:43.637Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 92% to 79.5% (-12.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:47:51.542Z to 2026-11-04T02:02:34.098Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 7.5% to 15% (+7.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:47:51.542Z to 2026-11-04T02:02:34.098Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders.
In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Living timeline · 5 significant updates
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? — probability falls to 16%
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