By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market refers to the tennis match between Kaitlyn Carnicella and Lucciana Perez Alarcon in the W50 Lexington, SC, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:30AM ET.
Current leader
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1 outcome
W50 Lexington, SC: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 98.4%, up 5.9 percentage points from 92.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Kaitlyn Carnicella: 92% → 98%
+5.9 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 98.4%, up 5.9 percentage points from 92.45% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Kaitlyn Carnicella: 92.5% → 98.4%
Probability moved from 92.45% to 98.4% (+5.95 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-10 04:50:20 UTC to 2026-10-10 05:20:11 UTC.
Watch for official league or team updates, roster or availability news, and whether later observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the tennis match between Kaitlyn Carnicella and Lucciana Perez Alarcon in the W50 Lexington, SC, Main Draw, originally scheduled for October 9, 2026 at 10:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kaitlyn Carnicella' if Kaitlyn Carnicella advances against Lucciana Perez Alarcon. This market will resolve to 'Lucciana Perez Alarcon' if Lucciana Perez Alarcon advances against Kaitlyn Carnicella.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the International Tennis Federation (ITF). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
W50 Lexington, SC: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon — probability rises to 98.4%
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W50 Lexington, SC: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon
PlungeW50 Lexington, SC: Kaitlyn Carnicella vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon
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