Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
Current leader
90.5%
91%
2 outcomes
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Will Likud win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 92.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 82% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 82% → 93%
+10.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 92.5%, up 10.5 percentage points from 82% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 82% to 92.5% (+10.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T21:26:10.663Z to 2026-10-27T22:32:23.054Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 82% → 92.5%
Probability moved from 82% to 92.5% (+10.5 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 6 minutes 12 seconds apart: 2026-10-27 21:26:10 UTC to 2026-10-27 22:32:23 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 15% to 8% (-7 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T21:26:10.663Z to 2026-10-27T22:32:15.929Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party or coalition that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. The named parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election.
If two or more parties or coalitions are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received by each party or coalition, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties or coalitions remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party or coalition names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Israeli Knesset. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? — probability rises to 92.5%
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