Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
Current leader
86.9%
87%
1 outcome
Will Shas win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 86.85%, up 13.1 percentage points from 73.75% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 74% → 87%
+13.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 73.75%, down 24.6 percentage points from 98.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 73.75% to 86.85% (+13.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T13:13:09.499Z to 2026-10-28T13:33:48.413Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 73.75% → 86.85%
Probability moved from 73.75% to 86.85% (+13.1 percentage points). Observations were 20 minutes 39 seconds apart: 2026-10-28 13:13:09 UTC to 2026-10-28 13:33:48 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 98.35% to 73.75% (-24.6 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T12:22:24.973Z to 2026-10-28T13:13:09.499Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Shas party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Shas's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.
Votes will be counted regardless of whether Shas passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Shas contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted.
If Shas merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will Shas win less than 6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections? — probability rises to 86.85%
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