Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
Current leader
12%
12%
1 outcome
Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 1-2 seats?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 12.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 23% → 13%
-10.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 12.5%, down 10.0 percentage points from 22.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 22.5% to 12.5% (-10 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T12:20:39.379Z to 2026-10-28T13:12:30.038Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 22.5% → 12.5%
Probability moved from 22.5% to 12.5% (-10 percentage points). Observations were 51 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-28 12:20:39 UTC to 2026-10-28 13:12:30 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 17.5% to 22.5% (+5 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T11:03:02.511Z to 2026-10-28T12:20:39.379Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 18.5% to 15% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-28T10:17:29.045Z to 2026-10-28T10:45:53.226Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 30.5% to 18.5% (-12 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T22:46:44.597Z to 2026-10-28T10:17:29.045Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 14% to 30.5% (+16.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T21:26:10.663Z to 2026-10-27T22:32:15.929Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin, in seats, between the combined number of seats won in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election by the Netanyahu bloc (“Bibi”) and by the opposition bloc (“Opposition”). The Netanyahu bloc consists of Likud, Otzma Yehudit, RZP-Zehut, Amcha Yisrael, United Torah Judaism, and Shas.
The opposition bloc consists of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Seats won by any party not named above will not count toward either bloc. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the two blocs’ combined seat totals. This market will resolve to the bracket for the bloc that wins more combined seats that contains this margin.
If both blocs win the same combined number of seats, this market will resolve to “Tie”. If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named parties in the Israeli Knesset.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (.
Living timeline · 5 significant updates
Will the Netanyahu bloc win the Israeli election by 1-2 seats? — probability falls to 12.5%
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