This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Current leader
97.8%
98%
2 outcomes
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election?
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 1.6%, down 8.3 percentage points from 9.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 10% → 2%
-8.3 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 1.6%, down 8.3 percentage points from 9.9% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 9.9% to 1.6% (-8.3 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T05:47:34.686Z to 2026-11-04T06:01:11.647Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 9.9% → 1.6%
Probability moved from 9.9% to 1.6% (-8.3 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 37 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 05:47:34 UTC to 2026-11-04 06:01:11 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87.9% to 97.35% (+9.45 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T05:47:34.686Z to 2026-11-04T06:01:04.067Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 92.25% to 87.9% (-4.35 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T05:34:11.442Z to 2026-11-04T05:47:34.686Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders.
In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of the election according to a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa Attorney General election? — probability falls to 1.6%
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