This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S.
Current leader
97%
97%
2 outcomes
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat?
Will the Republican Party win the IN-05 House seat?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97%, up 4.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 93% → 97%
+4.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 7%, down 4.5 percentage points from 11.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 92.5% to 97% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:46:34.772Z to 2026-11-04T02:01:20.770Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 92.5% → 97%
Probability moved from 92.5% to 97% (+4.5 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 46 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 01:46:34 UTC to 2026-11-04 02:01:20 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 7% to 4% (-3 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:47:55.315Z to 2026-11-04T02:01:20.770Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 11.5% to 7% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:31:46.237Z to 2026-11-04T01:47:55.315Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86% to 92.5% (+6.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T01:18:54.688Z to 2026-11-04T01:46:34.772Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (.
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
Will the Democratic Party win the IN-05 House seat? — probability rises to 97%
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