How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.
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- Current leader
- 97.4% 97%
- Largest 24h move
- +92.0 pp
- 24h volume
- 3.2K
- Liquidity
- 13.1K
Top candidates
1 outcome
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?
97%
+92.0 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
Read the complete resolution rules
Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? — probability rises to 97.4%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97.4%, up 4.1 percentage points from 93.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Latest update
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? — probability rises to 97.4%
The tracked probability rose to 97.4%, up 4.1 percentage points from 93.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
What changed
Probability moved from 93.25% to 97.4% (+4.15 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes apart: 2026-10-06 15:32:10 UTC to 2026-10-06 15:41:11 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Keep exploring
Recent market explanations
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? — probability rises to 97.4%
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? — probability falls to 93.25%
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4? — probability falls to 92.95%
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?