This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive.
Current leader
98.9%
99%
1 outcome
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97.15%, up 4.1 percentage points from 93.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 93% → 97%
+4.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97.15%, up 4.1 percentage points from 93.05% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93.05% to 97.15% (+4.1 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T16:01:42.707Z to 2026-10-20T16:30:36.464Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 93.05% → 97.15%
Probability moved from 93.05% to 97.15% (+4.1 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 54 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 16:01:42 UTC to 2026-10-20 16:30:36 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 96.95% to 93.15% (-3.8 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:16:44.430Z to 2026-10-20T15:51:45.778Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published.
If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? — probability rises to 97.15%
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