By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97.3%, up 4.6 percentage points from 92.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 93% → 97%
+4.6 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97.3%, up 4.6 percentage points from 92.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 92.7% → 97.3%
Probability moved from 92.65% to 97.3% (+4.65 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 39 seconds apart: 2026-10-12 03:40:20 UTC to 2026-10-12 03:50:58 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-10-12 03:59:00 UTC, 8 minutes 1 second after the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.
Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude.
After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? — probability rises to 97.3%
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SurgeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
PlungeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
SurgeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
PlungeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
SurgeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
PlungeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
SurgeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
PlungeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
SurgeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
SurgeHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
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