By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
2 outcomes
Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe latest observation puts this outcome at 97.05%, compared with 87.25% at the start of the window.
Yes: 87% → 97%
+9.8 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe latest observation puts this outcome at 97.05%, compared with 87.25% at the start of the window.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.
The measured move
Yes: 87.3% → 97.0%
Probability moved from 87.25% to 97.05% (+9.8 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 57 seconds apart: 2026-10-12 08:50:37 UTC to 2026-10-12 09:00:34 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-10-12 03:59:00 UTC, at or before the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 5, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude.
After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Living timeline · 12 significant updates
Will there be 12 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? — probability rises to 97.05%
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SurgeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
PlungeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
PlungeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
PlungeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
SurgeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
SurgeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
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SurgeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 5 - October 11?
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