This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 97%, up 9.4 percentage points from 87.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 88% → 97%
+9.4 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 97%, up 9.4 percentage points from 87.65% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87.65% to 97% (+9.35 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T04:01:27.980Z to 2026-10-19T04:15:21.343Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 87.65% → 97%
Probability moved from 87.65% to 97% (+9.35 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 53 seconds apart: 2026-10-19 04:01:27 UTC to 2026-10-19 04:15:21 UTC. The stated rules end at 2026-10-19 03:59:00 UTC, at or before the last observation. Timing alone does not explain the move.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 89.5% to 85% (-4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T03:00:30.978Z to 2026-10-19T03:30:58.318Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 12, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and October 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude.
After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? — probability rises to 97%
Keep exploring
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?
PlungeHow many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 12 - October 18?
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.