This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page ( at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 ET.
Current leader
94.8%
95%
1 outcome
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 94.35%, up 3.0 percentage points from 91.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 91% → 94%
+3.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 94.35%, up 3.0 percentage points from 91.35% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 91.35% to 94.35% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T22:48:12.734Z to 2026-10-30T23:21:10.941Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 91.35% → 94.35%
Probability moved from 91.35% to 94.35% (+3 percentage points). Observations were 32 minutes 58 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 22:48:12 UTC to 2026-10-30 23:21:10 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Polymarket has at least the specified daily mindshare, as shown on the Kaito Information Markets Arena page ( at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026 ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only finalized daily results from the Polymarket mindshare percentage shown on the Kaito Info Markets page at, specifically the daily values for Polymarket under 'Historical Data', will be used to resolve this market. Values will be considered final once the value for the subsequent day has been released. The resolution source for this market is the Kaito Info Markets page found at.
If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the Kaito Info Markets page comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on the latest available data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Kaito Info Markets page (, which reports the platform’s mindshare as a percentage to two decimal places (e.g., 66.56%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31? — probability rises to 94.35%
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