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Highest temperature in Los Angeles on October 6?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Oct '26.

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Current leader
95.5% 96%
Largest 24h move
+76.0 pp
24h volume
5.1K
Liquidity
1.2K

Top candidates

1 outcome

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 94-95°F on October 6?

96%

+76.0 pp 24h

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

See what is changing

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 6 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.

Read the complete resolution rules

If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F).

Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.

If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 94-95°F on October 6? — probability rises to 95.5%

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Story so far

Recently updated

The tracked probability rose to 95.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Latest update

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 94-95°F on October 6? — probability rises to 95.5%

The tracked probability rose to 95.5%, up 5.5 percentage points from 90% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

Why this matters

Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.

Known catalysts

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

  • Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

No public sources are attached yet.

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.

    What changed

    Probability moved from 90% to 95.5% (+5.5 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 20 seconds apart: 2026-10-06 19:01:24 UTC to 2026-10-06 19:31:43 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

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