By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 95%, up 7.0 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 88% → 95%
+7.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 95%, up 7.0 percentage points from 88% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 88.0% → 95.0%
Probability moved from 88% to 95% (+7 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes 46 seconds apart: 2026-10-14 05:50:44 UTC to 2026-10-14 06:20:30 UTC.
Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg.
C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions published after the Hong Kong Observatory's initial publication of data for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. That initial publication is the revisions cutoff.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above.
The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on October 14? — probability rises to 95%
Keep exploring
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.