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Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on October 15?

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

Post

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26.

Current leader

100%

100%

Largest 24h move+98.3 pp 24h
24h volume
$8K
Liquidity
$0
Closed

Top candidates

2 outcomes

  • Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on October 15?

    +98.3 pp 24h100%
  • Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 15?

    -44.5 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring only

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 15? — probability falls to 0.05%

This outcome moved down 90.95 percentage points, from 91% to 0.05%.

Yes: 91% → 0%

-91.0 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

This outcome moved down 90.95 percentage points, from 91% to 0.05%.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The figures come from the observed market prices over the stated window. They show a change in pricing, without identifying the event or information that prompted it.

    The measured move

    Yes: 91.0% → 0.1%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 91% to 0.05% (-90.95 percentage points). Observations were 37 minutes 10 seconds apart: 2026-10-15 17:00:14 UTC to 2026-10-15 17:37:24 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.

Read the complete resolution rules

In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.

This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.

If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on October 15? — probability falls to 0.05%

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