By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (, with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.35%, up 5.1 percentage points from 94.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 94% → 99%
+5.1 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.35%, up 5.1 percentage points from 94.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Yes: 94.3% → 99.4%
Probability moved from 94.25% to 99.35% (+5.1 percentage points). Observations were 12 minutes 1 second apart: 2026-10-13 16:02:14 UTC to 2026-10-13 16:14:15 UTC.
Watch for official company, product, regulatory, or research updates and whether later observations confirm the move.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (, with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's "Gemini Argon," or a model qualifying under the terms below, is made available to the general public.
Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 6 significant updates
Will Gemini Argon be released on October 13, 2026? — probability rises to 99.35%
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