This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 16?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 92%, up 3.5 percentage points from 88.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 89% → 92%
+3.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 92%, up 3.5 percentage points from 88.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 88.5% to 92% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T06:15:37.736Z to 2026-10-16T06:30:56.696Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 88.5% → 92%
Probability moved from 88.5% to 92% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 19 seconds apart: 2026-10-16 06:15:37 UTC to 2026-10-16 06:30:56 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 87.5% to 90.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-16T04:47:02.104Z to 2026-10-16T05:16:51.085Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 16? — probability rises to 92%
Keep exploring
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.