By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Current leader
0%
0%
1 outcome
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe observed probability fell from 76.5% to 0.05%, a decrease of 76.45 percentage points.
Yes: 77% → 0%
-76.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe observed probability fell from 76.5% to 0.05%, a decrease of 76.45 percentage points.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
This update compares two recorded market observations. The price change describes trading in this contract; the available data does not establish its cause.
The measured move
Yes: 76.5% → 0.1%
Probability moved from 76.5% to 0.05% (-76.45 percentage points). Observations were 9 minutes 34 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 15:52:40 UTC to 2026-10-13 16:02:14 UTC.
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between October 6, 12:00 PM ET and October 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026? — probability falls to 0.05%
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