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Counter-Strike: Rcave vs Fraternity (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

Post

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Rcave and Fraternity in the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.

Current leader

0%

0%

Largest 24h move-53.0 pp 24h
24h volume
$767.5
Liquidity
$0
Closed

Top candidates

2 outcomes

  • Counter-Strike: Rcave vs Fraternity (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

    -53.0 pp 24h0%
  • Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

    -40.5 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

PlungeMonitoring only

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 — probability falls to 0%

The latest observation puts this outcome at 0%, compared with 9.5% at the start of the window.

Over: 10% → 0%

-9.5 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

The observed probability fell from 50% to 9.5%, a decrease of 40.5 percentage points.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.

    The measured move

    Over: 9.5% → 0.0%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 9.5% to 0% (-9.5 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 21 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 10:37:05 UTC to 2026-10-13 10:47:26 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Rcave and Fraternity in the ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season, initially scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Rcave" if Rcave win the match against Fraternity. This market will resolve to "Fraternity" if Fraternity win the match against Rcave.

If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 12, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET).

Read the complete resolution rules

If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played.

If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from.

However, if has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching.

Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition.

If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 3 significant updates

Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 — probability falls to 0%

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