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Counter-Strike: HOTU vs fnatic (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat III Group C

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method

Post

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Opening match between HOTU and fnatic in the Stake Pulse Beat III Group C, initially scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET.

Current leader

100%

100%

Largest 24h move+73.0 pp 24h
24h volume
$53.6
Liquidity
$0
Closed

Top candidates

1 outcome

  • Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)

    +73.0 pp 24h100%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring only

Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5) — probability rises to 99.95%

The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 9.5 percentage points from 90.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

HOTU: 91% → 100%

+9.5 pp
Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Recently updated

The tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 9.5 percentage points from 90.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.

A sourced or deterministic market update is available.

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

  • No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

  • Watch for official league or team updates, roster or availability news, and whether later observations hold the new level.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

  1. The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.

    The measured move

    HOTU: 90.5% → 100.0%

    What changed

    Probability moved from 90.5% to 99.95% (+9.45 percentage points). Observations were 24 minutes 14 seconds apart: 2026-10-14 11:46:02 UTC to 2026-10-14 12:10:16 UTC.

    What to watch next

    Watch for official league or team updates, roster or availability news, and whether later observations hold the new level.

    Sources

    No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market refers to the Counter-Strike Opening match between HOTU and fnatic in the Stake Pulse Beat III Group C, initially scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET. This market will resolve to "HOTU" if HOTU win the match against fnatic. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against HOTU. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50.

If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 28, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 14, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played.

Read the complete resolution rules

Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from. However, if has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching.

Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition.

If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Maps and resolution sources

Living timeline · 1 significant update

Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5) — probability rises to 99.95%

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