Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8?
By PolySays EditorialReporting published Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
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- Current leader
- 0%Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8?
- Largest 24h move
- -50.4 pp
- 24h volume
- 86.7K
- Liquidity
- 53.7K
Top candidates
1 outcome
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8?
0%
-50.4 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Oct 8 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Oct 7 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Oct 8 '26 12:00 ET candle.
If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Living timeline · 3 significant updates
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8? — probability falls to 1.15%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.
Story so far
Published updateThe tracked probability fell to 1.15%, down 4.9 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.
This summary reflects the reporting below. Market odds can change between published updates.
Latest published update
Published
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 8? — probability falls to 1.15%
The tracked probability fell to 1.15%, down 4.9 percentage points from 6% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
This update compares two recorded prices. A price change does not, by itself, confirm a development in the underlying event.
What changed
Probability moved from 6% to 1.15% (-4.85 percentage points). Observations were 18 minutes 44 seconds apart: 2026-10-08 14:51:48 UTC to 2026-10-08 15:10:33 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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