This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.
Current leader
100%
100%
1 outcome
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 100%, up 3.5 percentage points from 96.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Up: 97% → 100%
+3.5 ppStory so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 96.5% to 100% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-27T10:47:50.749Z to 2026-10-27T12:04:02.415Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Up: 96.5% → 100%
Probability moved from 96.5% to 100% (+3.5 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 16 minutes 12 seconds apart: 2026-10-27 10:47:50 UTC to 2026-10-27 12:04:02 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (.
The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET — probability rises to 100%
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