By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title.
Current leader
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1 outcome
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 7PM ET
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.15%, down 3.3 percentage points from 3.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Up: 3% → 0%
-3.3 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.15%, down 3.3 percentage points from 3.4% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Up: 3.4% → 0.1%
Probability moved from 3.4% to 0.15% (-3.25 percentage points). Observations were 4 minutes 56 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 23:45:42 UTC to 2026-10-13 23:50:38 UTC.
Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (.
The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 7PM ET — probability falls to 0.15%
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