This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title.
Current leader
100%
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1 outcome
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 17?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 89% → 94%
+4.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 93.5%, up 4.5 percentage points from 89% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 89% to 93.5% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T11:02:35.847Z to 2026-10-17T11:17:05.960Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 89% → 93.5%
Probability moved from 89% to 93.5% (+4.5 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 30 seconds apart: 2026-10-17 11:02:35 UTC to 2026-10-17 11:17:05 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 84% to 87% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:32:00.063Z to 2026-10-17T08:46:39.870Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 79.5% to 84% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T08:17:41.057Z to 2026-10-17T08:32:00.063Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 78% to 82.5% (+4.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T07:32:25.674Z to 2026-10-17T07:46:27.364Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 84% to 78% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T07:17:53.738Z to 2026-10-17T07:32:25.674Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 87% to 81% (-6 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T03:18:51.248Z to 2026-10-17T03:30:27.328Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 81.5% to 85% (+3.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-17T02:00:10.057Z to 2026-10-17T02:30:14.048Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Living timeline · 7 significant updates
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on October 17? — probability rises to 93.5%
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