This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Current leader
10.5%
11%
1 outcome
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 30?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 10.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 7.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 8% → 11%
+3.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 7.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 4.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 7.5% to 10.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T03:31:18.242Z to 2026-10-30T03:46:26.289Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 7.5% → 10.5%
Probability moved from 7.5% to 10.5% (+3 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 8 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 03:31:18 UTC to 2026-10-30 03:46:26 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T02:03:41.546Z to 2026-10-30T02:31:00.934Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT closing at 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 30? — probability rises to 10.5%
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