This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 30, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog.
Current leader
89.5%
90%
1 outcome
Will the biggest earthquake on October 30, 2026 be under 5.3?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 89.5%, up 3.0 percentage points from 86.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 87% → 90%
+3.0 ppStory so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86.5% to 89.5% (+3 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T23:03:39.673Z to 2026-10-30T23:35:22.104Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 86.5% → 89.5%
Probability moved from 86.5% to 89.5% (+3 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes 42 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 23:03:39 UTC to 2026-10-30 23:35:22 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the magnitude of the largest earthquake recorded globally on October 30, 2026, as reported by the USGS Earthquake Catalog. Brackets: Under 5.3 / 5.3 to 5.4 / 5.5 to 5.6 / 5.7 to 5.8 / 5.9 to 6.0 / 6.1 or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The observation period is the UTC calendar day: 00:00 UTC to 23:59 UTC on October 30, 2026.
An earthquake is assigned to the day containing its origin time. Magnitude refers to the USGS preferred magnitude value, listed under 'Magnitude' in the format column. If USGS revises a magnitude after initial publication, the revision governs provided it is published before 2:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026. A value first published after that time is not considered.
If the reported magnitude carries more than one decimal place, it is rounded to the nearest tenth using standard rounding conventions (0.05 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. If no earthquake data for October 30, 2026 has been published by 2:00 PM ET on October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to the "Under 5.3" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the USGS Earthquake Catalog, maintained by the United States Geological Survey, at.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will the biggest earthquake on October 30, 2026 be under 5.3? — probability rises to 89.5%
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