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PlungeMonitoring onlyWill Safa win on 2026-10-16? — probability falls to 0.05%
The tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 86.5 percentage points from 86.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 87% → 0%
-86.5 pp