This market refers to the tennis match between Sho Shimabukuro and Roman Safiullin in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 2:00AM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
9 outcomes
Almaty Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Roman Safiullin
Sho Shimabukuro vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Shimabukuro vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 23.5
Shimabukuro vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 22.5
Shimabukuro vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 21.5
Shimabukuro vs. Safiullin: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
100%
+52.0 pp
Shimabukuro vs. Safiullin: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
100%
+52.0 pp
Set Handicap: Roman Safiullin (-1.5) vs Sho Shimabukuro (+1.5)
0%
-61.5 pp
Game Spread: Roman Safiullin (-4.5) vs Sho Shimabukuro (+4.5)
0%
-56.0 pp
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0%, down 13.5 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Roman Safiullin: 14% → 0%
-13.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0%, down 13.5 percentage points from 13.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 13.5% to 0% (-13.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:01:12.859Z to 2026-10-20T08:30:12.976Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Roman Safiullin: 13.5% → 0%
Probability moved from 13.5% to 0% (-13.5 percentage points). Observations were 29 minutes apart: 2026-10-20 08:01:12 UTC to 2026-10-20 08:30:12 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 86% to 99.95% (+13.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T08:01:12.859Z to 2026-10-20T08:19:56.494Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the tennis match between Sho Shimabukuro and Roman Safiullin in the Almaty Open, originally scheduled for October 20, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sho Shimabukuro' if Sho Shimabukuro advances against Roman Safiullin. This market will resolve to 'Roman Safiullin' if Roman Safiullin advances against Sho Shimabukuro.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Set Handicap: Roman Safiullin (-1.5) vs Sho Shimabukuro (+1.5) — probability falls to 0%
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