This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Pellegrino and Pol Martin Tiffon in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET.
Current leader
0%
0%
1 outcome
Lisbon: Completed Match: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 50% → 0%
-50.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 50.0 percentage points from 50% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 50% to 0.05% (-49.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T09:32:17.451Z to 2026-10-20T09:46:45.843Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 50% → 0.05%
Probability moved from 50% to 0.05% (-49.95 percentage points). Observations were 14 minutes 28 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 09:32:17 UTC to 2026-10-20 09:46:45 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 4.5% to 47.9% (+43.4 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T16:15:52.951Z to 2026-10-19T16:30:23.102Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 48.5% to 4.5% (-44 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T16:01:43.900Z to 2026-10-19T16:15:52.951Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 0.5% to 48.5% (+48 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T15:32:13.932Z to 2026-10-19T16:01:43.900Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the tennis match between Andrea Pellegrino and Pol Martin Tiffon in the Lisbon, originally scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Andrea Pellegrino' if Andrea Pellegrino advances against Pol Martin Tiffon. This market will resolve to 'Pol Martin Tiffon' if Pol Martin Tiffon advances against Andrea Pellegrino.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
Lisbon: Completed Match: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon — probability falls to 0.05%
Keep exploring
Lisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
SurgeLisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
PlungeLisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
SurgeLisbon: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pol Martin Tiffon
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