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Maia: Elmer Moeller vs Lukas Neumayer

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Oct 14, 2026, 8:35 PM UTCEditorial method

This market refers to the tennis match between Elmer Moeller and Lukas Neumayer in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+45.0 pp 24h

24h volume: $288.3
Liquidity: $0
Closed: Oct 19, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC

Top candidates

4 outcomes

Moeller vs. Neumayer: Match O/U 22.5
+45.0 pp 24h100%
Moeller vs. Neumayer: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
+50.0 pp 24h100%
Game Spread: Lukas Neumayer (-1.5) vs Elmer Moeller (+1.5)
+50.5 pp 24h100%
Moeller vs. Neumayer: Match O/U 23.5
+40.5 pp 24h100%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 14

Moeller vs. Neumayer: Match O/U 22.5 — probability rises to 100%

This outcome's observed probability increased by 9.5 percentage points to 100%, from 90.5%.

Over: 91% → 100%

+9.5 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

The market observations support the prices and change shown here. A price move alone cannot confirm a real-world result or explain traders' decisions.
The measured move
Over: 90.5% → 100.0%
What changed
Probability moved from 90.5% to 100% (+9.5 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes apart: 2026-10-14 20:20:02 UTC to 2026-10-14 20:35:01 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market refers to the tennis match between Elmer Moeller and Lukas Neumayer in the Maia, originally scheduled for October 12, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Lukas Neumayer. This market will resolve to 'Lukas Neumayer' if Lukas Neumayer advances against Elmer Moeller.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

Read the complete resolution rules

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 6 significant updates

Moeller vs. Neumayer: Match O/U 22.5 — probability rises to 100%

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