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Shanghai Rolex Masters: Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov

By PolySays EditorialUpdated Oct 13, 2026, 11:07 AM UTCEditorial method

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET.

Current leader

100%

Largest 24h move+52.4 pp 24h

24h volume: $673.7
Liquidity: $1.4K
Scheduled close: Oct 21, 2026, 2:00 AM UTC

Top candidates

5 outcomes

Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
+43.0 pp 24h100%
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5
+42.5 pp 24h100%
Game Spread: Alex de Minaur (-1.5) vs Karen Khachanov (+1.5)
+52.4 pp 24h100%
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
-50.5 pp 24h0%
Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5
-47.9 pp 24h0%

Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).

Latest update

SurgeMonitoring onlyOct 13

Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 100%

The latest observation puts this outcome at 100%, compared with 91% at the start of the window.

Over: 91% → 100%

+9.0 pp

Sources and full timeline

Story so far

Known catalysts

Supported by the sources below

No catalyst has been confirmed yet.

Unresolved questions

What the evidence doesn’t settle

Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.

People and institutions to watch

Nothing specific is being tracked yet.

Source trail

Public sources opened for this story

No public sources are attached yet.

Odds chart

Candidate probability over time

Living timeline

Significant updates

This brief records how the contract was priced at two points in time. The direction and size of the move are measured; a reason for the move has not been verified.
The measured move
Over: 91.0% → 100.0%
What changed
Probability moved from 91% to 100% (+9 percentage points). Observations were 7 minutes 48 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 10:59:50 UTC to 2026-10-13 11:07:39 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch subsequent price observations and reporting that addresses the contract's exact conditions. Market prices do not determine the official outcome.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.

Market rules, made readable

Official description

How this market is decided

Read the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.

See what is changing

This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alex de Minaur' if Alex de Minaur advances against Karen Khachanov. This market will resolve to 'Karen Khachanov' if Karen Khachanov advances against Alex de Minaur.

If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.

Read the complete resolution rules

If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Living timeline · 12 significant updates

Minaur vs. Khachanov: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 — probability rises to 100%

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