By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Jakub Mensik in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
5 outcomes
Gea vs. Mensik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Gea vs. Mensik: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5
Gea vs. Mensik: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Set 1 Winner: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 7.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Over: 93% → 100%
+7.5 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 7.5 percentage points from 92.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
The measured move
Over: 92.5% → 100.0%
Probability moved from 92.5% to 99.95% (+7.45 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 8 seconds apart: 2026-10-13 06:37:44 UTC to 2026-10-13 06:47:51 UTC.
Watch for official league or team updates, roster or availability news, and whether later observations hold the new level.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the tennis match between Arthur Gea and Jakub Mensik in the Shanghai Rolex Masters, originally scheduled for October 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Jakub Mensik. This market will resolve to 'Jakub Mensik' if Jakub Mensik advances against Arthur Gea.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Gea vs. Mensik: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 — probability rises to 99.95%
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