This market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Buse and Daniil Medvedev in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET.
Current leader
100%
100%
4 outcomes
Set 1 Winner: Ignacio Buse vs Daniil Medvedev
Buse vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Ignacio Buse vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Set Handicap: Daniil Medvedev (-1.5) vs Ignacio Buse (+1.5)
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 62.0 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Over 2.5: 62% → 0%
-62.0 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 62.0 percentage points from 62% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 62% to 0.05% (-61.95 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z to 2026-11-04T15:47:32.302Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Over 2.5: 62% → 0.05%
Probability moved from 62% to 0.05% (-61.95 percentage points). Observations were 13 minutes 50 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 15:33:42 UTC to 2026-11-04 15:47:32 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 92.5% to 62% (-30.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T15:18:45.379Z to 2026-11-04T15:33:42.163Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market refers to the tennis match between Ignacio Buse and Daniil Medvedev in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 4, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ignacio Buse' if Ignacio Buse advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Ignacio Buse.
If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or a winner has not been determined by November 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (14 days after the scheduled start), this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Living timeline · 2 significant updates
Ignacio Buse vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 2.5 — probability falls to 0.05%
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