Percent of Winter Wheat in drought - week of October 6, 2026
By PolySays EditorialReporting published Editorial method
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for winter wheat acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026.
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- Current leader
- 51%Will 45% to 54% of Winter Wheat acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
- Largest 24h move
- -50.5 pp
- 24h volume
- 203
- Liquidity
- 18.8
Top candidates
2 outcomes
Will 45% to 54% of Winter Wheat acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
51%
+3.0 pp 24h
Will Under 15% of Winter Wheat acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week?
0%
-50.5 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for winter wheat acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national winter wheat acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Read the complete resolution rules
Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above.
The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for winter wheat acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will 45% to 54% of Winter Wheat acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week? — probability falls to 50.5%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Latest chart observation: . Reporting is updated separately.
Story so far
Published updateThe tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 49.5 percentage points from 99.95% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.
This summary reflects the reporting below. Market odds can change between published updates.
Latest published update
Published
Will 45% to 54% of Winter Wheat acreage be in D1-D4 drought this week? — probability falls to 50.5%
The tracked probability fell to 50.5%, down 49.5 percentage points from 99.95% in the latest observation window. The reason for this decrease has not been verified.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No confirmed catalyst is recorded in this summary.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
This update compares two recorded prices. A price change does not, by itself, confirm a development in the underlying event.
What changed
Probability moved from 99.95% to 50.5% (-49.45 percentage points). Observations were 31 minutes apart: 2026-10-09 07:02:36 UTC to 2026-10-09 07:33:36 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official confirmation, independent reporting, sustained volume, and whether later market observations hold the new level.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
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