By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on October 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day.
Current leader
0%
0%
1 outcome
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 9?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungePartly sourcedThe tracked probability fell to 0.05%, down 8.9 percentage points from 9% in the latest observation window. Only background evidence is available, so it is not used to explain the repricing.
Up: 9% → 0%
-8.9 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 8.95%, up 6.7 percentage points from 2.25% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. The supplied source is background rather than direct evidence of the underlying development. It is retained as context and is not used to infer a cause for the repricing.
The measured move
Up: 9.0% → 0.1%
Probability moved from 9% to 0.05% (-8.95 percentage points). Observations were 10 minutes 2 seconds apart: 2026-10-09 20:00:06 UTC to 2026-10-09 20:10:08 UTC.
Watch for official disclosures or data releases, sustained volume, and whether later observations confirm the move.
StockStory
Why Apple (AAPL) Stock Is Trading Lower Today StockStory
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on October 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on October 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day.
E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange.
If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g.,.
Living timeline · 4 significant updates
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 9? — probability falls to 0.05%
Keep exploring
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 9?
SurgeApple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 9?
PlungeApple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 9?
SurgeApple (AAPL) Up or Down on October 9?
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.