This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close.
Current leader
93.9%
94%
2 outcomes
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 94.1%, up 3.2 percentage points from 90.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 91% → 94%
+3.2 ppStory so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability rose to 94.1%, up 3.2 percentage points from 90.85% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Supported by the sources below
What the evidence doesn’t settle
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Public sources opened for this story
No public sources are attached yet.
Odds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 90.85% to 94.1% (+3.25 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T16:51:37.117Z to 2026-10-30T17:18:15.158Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 90.85% → 94.1%
Probability moved from 90.85% to 94.1% (+3.25 percentage points). Observations were 26 minutes 38 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 16:51:37 UTC to 2026-10-30 17:18:15 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Living timeline · 1 significant update
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? — probability rises to 94.1%
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