0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
By PolySays EditorialUpdated Editorial method
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026.
PolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
- Current leader
- 92.9% 93%
- Largest 24h move
- +62.9 pp
- 24h volume
- 8.5K
- Liquidity
- 8.3K
Top candidates
1 outcome
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?
93%
+62.9 pp 24h
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionHow this market is decided
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication.
If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections.
Read the complete resolution rules
Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Living timeline · 6 significant updates
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability falls to 92.65%
Odds chart
Candidate probability over time
Story so far
Recently updatedThe tracked probability fell to 92.65%, down 4.0 percentage points from 96.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
A sourced or deterministic market update is available.
Latest update
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability falls to 92.65%
The tracked probability fell to 92.65%, down 4.0 percentage points from 96.7% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Why this matters
Market moves can show where expectations are changing. PolySays adds the source trail so the price is not treated as proof on its own.
Known catalysts
- No catalyst has been confirmed yet.
Unresolved questions
- Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
People and institutions to watch
Nothing specific is being tracked yet.
Source trail
No public sources are attached yet.
Living timeline
Significant updates
The probability change is measured directly from the market observations. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied. This note records market behavior only and does not infer a reason for the move.
What changed
Probability moved from 96.7% to 92.65% (-4.05 percentage points). Observations were 11 minutes 5 seconds apart: 2026-10-06 15:10:06 UTC to 2026-10-06 15:21:11 UTC.
What to watch next
Watch for official filings, polling or vote results, candidate announcements, and whether later observations hold the new level.
Sources
No external sources are attached yet.
Keep exploring
Recent market explanations
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability falls to 92.65%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability rises to 96.7%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability falls to 91.6%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability rises to 98%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability falls to 91.7%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31? — probability falls to 95.5%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?