This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 4, 2026 trading day is higher than the listed price.
Leading outcome
3.3%
3%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 3.3%, down 3.2 percentage points from 6.5% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 7% → 3%
-3.2 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 6.5% to 3.3% (-3.2 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T18:47:56.266Z to 2026-11-04T19:18:05.753Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 6.5% → 3.3%
Probability moved from 6.5% to 3.3% (-3.2 percentage points). Observations were 30 minutes 9 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 18:47:56 UTC to 2026-11-04 19:18:05 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures Europe WTI Crude Futures (denoted by Pyth as "CLL") for the November 4, 2026 trading day is higher than the listed price.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market (See: "Trading Hours" at.
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 8:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date, except for the session dated Monday, which begins at 6:00 PM ET on the preceding Sunday, and where modified by holiday or other special hours (See:. The Active Month is the nearest listed contract, except during that contract's final three trading sessions.
At the open of the third-to-last trading session, the next listed contract becomes the Active Month. Each contract's last trading day will be determined by ICE Futures Europe per the WTI Crude Futures contract specification (generally the 4th US business day prior to the 25th calendar day of the month preceding the contract month, or five US business days prior if the 25th calendar day is not a US business day).
The last trading day for each contract is posted at. For example, if the last trading session for the nearest listed contract is the session for Monday the 20th, the next listed contract would become the Active Month at the start of the trading session for Thursday the 16th (8:00 PM ET on Wednesday), assuming a standard trading calendar.
If the specified day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price.
If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other disruption, the official close price published for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe will be used to determine the closing price for that day (See: with "T-West Texas Intermediate Light Sweet Crude Future" selected).
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" value for the relevant 1-minute candle for the Active Month WTI Crude Oil Futures contract by ICE Futures Europe available at. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.