This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of November 2 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price.
Leading outcome
100%
100%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 99.95%, up 6.7 percentage points from 93.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 93% → 100%
+6.7 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 93.3% to 99.95% (+6.65 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T09:04:53.079Z to 2026-11-04T10:20:18.622Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 93.3% → 99.95%
Probability moved from 93.3% to 99.95% (+6.65 percentage points). Observations were 1 hour 15 minutes 26 seconds apart: 2026-11-04 09:04:53 UTC to 2026-11-04 10:20:18 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 90% to 96% (+6 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T08:05:30.498Z to 2026-11-04T08:18:01.365Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 93.5% to 90% (-3.5 percentage points), from 2026-11-04T07:48:57.106Z to 2026-11-04T08:05:30.498Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during a trading session of the week of November 2 2026, any 1-minute candle for Silver (XAGUSD) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during an applicable trading session of the specified timeframe's business days will be considered. The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date.
Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the listed time frame, this market will resolve to "No".
PolySays is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or operated by Polymarket. PolySays provides informational and educational content only and does not provide financial, betting, investment, tax, or legal advice. Prediction markets involve risk, and regulatory status varies by jurisdiction.
Source market
Figures refresh periodically, not tick by tick. PolySays explains markets; it doesn’t run one or give trading advice.
View on PolymarketPolySays may earn referral rewards from Polymarket links at no added cost to you. Full disclosure.
Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the Silver (XAGUSD) "High" and "Low" prices available at, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published for the relevant CME COMEX futures contract for the underlying metal—COMEX Silver Futures (SI)—may be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.