This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign pulls its advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Leading outcome
83.5%
84%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
PlungeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability fell to 83.55%, down 8.8 percentage points from 92.3% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 92% → 84%
-8.8 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 92.3% to 83.55% (-8.75 percentage points), from 2026-10-30T20:05:26.654Z to 2026-10-30T20:34:17.183Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 92.3% → 83.55%
Probability moved from 92.3% to 83.55% (-8.75 percentage points). Observations were 28 minutes 51 seconds apart: 2026-10-30 20:05:26 UTC to 2026-10-30 20:34:17 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vivek Ramaswamy campaign pulls its advertisement featuring Amy Acton's mother between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The advertisement will be considered pulled if either of the following occurs within this market's timeframe: Vivek Ramaswamy or an authorized representative of his campaign publicly announces that the campaign has stopped, or will stop, airing the advertisement; or a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the campaign has pulled, withdrawn, or stopped airing the advertisement on television.
Replacing the advertisement with a new or edited version that no longer features Amy Acton's mother will qualify. Editing the advertisement while it continues to feature Amy Acton's mother will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: removal of the advertisement from social media or other online platforms while it continues to air on television; a reduction in spending or airtime that does not stop the advertisement from airing; the advertisement leaving the air because its previously scheduled ad buy has ended, unless the campaign or a consensus of credible reporting describes the advertisement as having been pulled or withdrawn; removal by a television station, platform, or court order rather than by the campaign; and the airing or removal of any advertisement by a third party not affiliated with the Ramaswamy campaign.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.
If the campaign announces that it will stop airing the advertisement, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of when the advertisement actually stops airing. A subsequent decision to resume airing the advertisement will not change a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Vivek Ramaswamy and his campaign, including official websites, verified social media accounts, interviews, and press conferences; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.