This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time).
Leading outcome
75.4%
75%
2 outcomes
Yes
No
Now Gained in 24h Lost in 24hChanges are in percentage points (pp).
Latest update
SurgeMonitoring onlyThe tracked probability rose to 75.45%, up 11.6 percentage points from 63.8% in the latest observation window. No evidence-qualified public source was supplied, so this remains a monitoring note rather than a causal explanation.
Yes: 64% → 75%
+11.6 ppOdds chart
Living timeline
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 63.8% to 75.45% (+11.65 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T15:01:00.888Z to 2026-10-20T15:16:44.430Z (UTC).
Editorial research is deferred. This update preserves the observed market change. The cause of the move is not established.
The measured move
Yes: 63.8% → 75.45%
Probability moved from 63.8% to 75.45% (+11.65 percentage points). Observations were 15 minutes 44 seconds apart: 2026-10-20 15:01:00 UTC to 2026-10-20 15:16:44 UTC.
Watch further market observations and reporting about this contract. This update has not been enrolled for editorial research.
No external sources are attached yet.
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 45.3% to 63.8% (+18.5 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:46:59.633Z to 2026-10-20T14:00:04.954Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 65.05% to 44.1% (-20.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T13:00:19.880Z to 2026-10-20T13:15:37.074Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 55% to 65.05% (+10.05 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T12:46:49.756Z to 2026-10-20T13:00:19.880Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 50.05% to 55% (+4.95 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T01:30:32.264Z to 2026-10-20T01:47:48.548Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability fell from 53.9% to 50.05% (-3.85 percentage points), from 2026-10-20T00:00:37.301Z to 2026-10-20T00:17:20.899Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 48.7% to 55.25% (+6.55 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T23:01:37.692Z to 2026-10-19T23:16:49.984Z (UTC).
Observed movement
Observed probability rose from 45.05% to 49.75% (+4.7 percentage points), from 2026-10-19T21:48:00.970Z to 2026-10-19T22:00:54.336Z (UTC).
Market rules, made readable
Official descriptionRead the rules before reading the headline. Resolution wording decides the outcome, not the news.
Resolves Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed group officially releases a new song between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time).
Resolves No
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Officially released means that a newly released song is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date. Songs released by individual members, subgroups, or any other configuration not under the listed group name will not qualify. If a song is released jointly by multiple groups credited equally as primary artists, the song will count for all of them.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or remixes will not count. The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.
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Source market
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Story so far
MonitoringPolySays is monitoring this market.
No evidence-qualified explanation has been published yet.
No evidence logged yet. No catalyst, open question, or public source is attached to this story, and we won’t guess.